Spring has officially arrived, but the Greater Toronto Area real estate market remains complex and unpredictable. While the early months of 2025 showed some positive signs, recent developments have introduced new challenges. Interest rate cuts had brought some buyers back, but broader economic uncertainty – including a looming federal election, global trade tensions, and instability in the stock market has cooled that momentum.
Last week, the Toronto Real Estate Board released its latest Market Watch report. Some trends offer reassurance, while others point to ongoing shifts in buyer behaviour and market dynamics:
- Detached homes in central Toronto are holding steady in value (down just 1% year over year), though sales volume has declined by 18%. Listings are up significantly, with supply increasing 133% compared to the same time last year.
- Semi-detached homes saw a 2% rise in value and a 10% increase in sales activity, but inventory in this segment is also up by 180%.
- Condominiums continue to face challenges, with a 4% drop in value year over year. Sales have decreased by 21%, while listings are up 39% from March 2024.
While sales showed improvement in February and March, the growing number of listings suggests many sellers are returning to the market as economic confidence is beginning to soften again.
Economic Conditions Remain in Focus
Canada’s broader economic picture continues to weigh on the housing market. In March, the country recorded a loss of 33,000 jobs, the largest monthly decline since January 2022. The numbers reflect growing concerns around inflation, global trade disruptions, and economic policy uncertainty.
On April 10, the Bank of Canada announced it would hold its key interest rate at 2.75%, citing ongoing inflationary pressures and the need for more consistent progress toward its 2% inflation target. While some had anticipated a cut this spring, the Bank emphasized that more data is needed before any change in policy direction.
Looking Ahead
This spring, we expect to see increased inventory and measured buyer activity. While pricing for desirable, end-user homes should stay relatively stable, longer days on market will likely become the norm.
In today’s environment, price alone won’t drive success. Deals will be shaped by collaboration, adaptability, and a strategic approach. I remain confident that even in uncertain conditions, there are opportunities for buyers and sellers who are patient and proactive. Market shifts like these call for continued partnership among clients, developers, and policymakers to support both short-term stability and long-term affordability.
Wishing you a strong and steady season ahead,
Warmly,
Carol Lome
