Each year, January and February offer some of the clearest signals about where the real estate market may be heading. While activity is typically quieter in winter, early-year numbers often reveal shifts in supply, pricing, and buyer behaviour that shape the spring market ahead.
Here’s what recent data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) suggests about the year to come.
1. Fewer Bidding Wars
One of the most important trends heading into 2026 is the continued increase in available listings.
TRREB reported that new listings rose about 10% year-over-year in 2025, while sales declined, leaving more inventory available to buyers.
This shift has created a more balanced market compared with the tight conditions seen earlier in the decade. Higher supply typically means:
- More negotiating power for buyers
- More time to make decisions
- Less frequent bidding wars in many segments
For families planning a move in 2026, this increased selection may be one of the defining features of the year.
2. Prices Softened, Improving Affordability
TRREB data shows that the average selling price in the GTA in 2025 was about $1,067,968, down 4.7% from 2024.
Monthly data has continued to reflect this trend. For example, recent reporting indicates:
- January home sales declined year-over-year
- The average selling price fell to roughly $973,000, dipping below the $1M mark for the first time in several years.
While no one wants to see values drop sharply, moderate price adjustments can improve affordability and allow more buyers to enter the market – often setting the stage for a healthier long-term cycle.
3. Sales Activity Remains Cautious, but Stable
TRREB reported 62,433 home sales in 2025, down 11.2% from the previous year, reflecting ongoing caution among buyers.
Early 2026 numbers suggest this cautious sentiment continues, with year-over-year declines in sales as some households adopt a “wait-and-see” approach amid economic uncertainty.
However, TRREB’s outlook indicates that sales levels are expected to remain broadly in line with recent years, rather than collapse, suggesting a market that is stabilizing rather than weakening dramatically.
4. Days on Market Are Rising Slightly
Another early-year signal is the pace of sales. Recent figures show average days on market increasing to roughly 45 days, indicating homes are taking longer to sell than in the peak years.
In practical terms, this means:
- Buyers have more time to evaluate options
- Sellers need stronger pricing and marketing strategies
- Preparation and presentation matter more than ever
This trend is especially relevant in midtown Toronto, where well-prepared homes still attract strong interest.
5. Why Early-Year Trends Matter
January and February don’t predict the entire year, but they do establish momentum.
When we see:
- Higher inventory
- Moderating prices
- Cautious but steady sales
This often points toward a balanced spring market, rather than the extreme seller or buyer conditions seen in previous cycles.
TRREB’s own outlook suggests that improved affordability and pent-up demand could support increased activity once consumer confidence strengthens.
6. What This Means for Midtown Toronto Families
For buyers, 2026 may offer:
- More choice
- More negotiating room
- Less urgency than in previous years
For sellers, it means:
- Strategic pricing is essential
- Presentation and marketing matter more
- Well-located, family-friendly homes still perform strongly
Markets change, but fundamentals such as location, schools, and lifestyle continue to drive long-term value in neighbourhoods across midtown.
Thinking About Making a Move This Year?
If you’re considering buying or selling in 2026, the team at Lome Irwin is always happy to share local insight and help you understand what these broader trends mean in your specific neighbourhood.
A conversation early in the year can often make the biggest difference when spring arrives.
Reach out at clientcare@lomeirwin.com